Scientific research shows that a large earthquake and its tsunami are very likely sometime in the next few decades in the area between the Batu and Pagai Islands and along the neighboring mainland West Sumatran coast, including Padang. However, we cannot say exactly when within the next few decades this might occur. This means that young people living in this region today are very likely to experience this great earthquake and its tsunami within their lifetimes.

Since before 2004, scientists have forecast that the area along the western Sumatra coast would experience devastating earthquakes and tsunami. They knew this by observing how the Earth compresses and bends as two plates (sections of the Earth) move together in this area. Over time, this slow, ongoing motion causes energy to be stored in the compressed and bent rocks, just like slowly compressing a spring. Eventually, there is too much stored energy and the Earth moves suddenly in an earthquake – just like the more your compress a spring, the more it will push back when you lose your grip.

After the great earthquakes farther north in Aceh in 2004 and Nias in 2005, scientists showed that the area around the Mentawai Islands still had built-up energy, so still could produce a devastating earthquake and tsunami.

The earthquakes of September 2007 and October 2010 released much of the built-up energy from South Pagai Island to Bengkulu, causing damage throughout the region.

However, the area around North Pagai, Sipora, and Siberut still has much built-up energy, so is likely to produce a devastating earthquake and tsunami sometime in the next few decades.

Scientists are not able to know on which day, month, or year that earthquake might happen, but do know that it is very likely to happen within the lifetime of today's young people.

Scientific research shows that a large earthquake and its tsunami are very likely sometime in the next few decades in the area between the Batu and Pagai Islands and along the neighboring mainland West Sumatran coast, including Padang. However, we cannot say exactly when within the next few decades this might occur. This means that young people living in this region today are very likely to experience this great earthquake and its tsunami within their lifetimes.

Since before 2004, scientists have forecast that the area along the western Sumatra coast would experience devastating earthquakes and tsunami. They knew this by observing how the Earth compresses and bends as two plates (sections of the Earth) move together in this area. Over time, this slow, ongoing motion causes energy to be stored in the compressed and bent rocks, just like slowly compressing a spring. Eventually, there is too much stored energy and the Earth moves suddenly in an earthquake – just like the more your compress a spring, the more it will push back when you lose your grip.

1. After the large earthquakes farther north in Aceh in 2004 and Nias in 2005, scientists showed that the area around the Mentawai Islands still had built-up energy, so still could produce a devastating earthquake and tsunami.

2. The earthquakes of September 2007 released much of the built-up energy from South Pagai Island to Bengkulu, causing damage throughout the region

3. After 2007, scientists forecast that there was still a large area of built-up energy that could still produce a large earthquake.

4. The October 2010 earthquake relieved another small area of built-up energy, causing damage in the region and generating a tsunami many meters high.

5. However, the area around North Pagai, Sipora, and Siberut still has much built-up energy, so is likely to produce a devastating earthquake and tsunami sometime in the next few decades.

6. There is still the potential for an earthquake as large as magnitude 8.8, with a devastating tsunami that would reach the outer islands within 5-10 minutes and reach the coast of western Sumatra within 20-30 minutes.

Scientists don't know on which day, month, or year that earthquake might happen, but do know that it is very likely to happen within the lifetime of today's young people.